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| Titel |
Climate change effects on drought severity |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Loukas, L. Vasiliades, J. Tzabiras |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 9th EGU Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2007) ; Nr. 17 (2008-06-20), S.23-29 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013620
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-17-23-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper evaluates climate change effects on drought severity in the
region of Thessaly, Greece. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has
been used for estimation of drought severity. A geographical information
system is applied for the division of Thessaly region to twelve hydrological
homogeneous areas based on their geomorphology. Mean monthly precipitation
values from 50 precipitation stations of Thessaly for the hydrological
period October 1960–September 1990 were used for the estimation of mean
areal precipitation. These precipitation timeseries have been used for the
estimation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for multiple time
scales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months) for each sub-basin or area. The
outputs of Global Circulation Model CGCM2 were applied for two socioeconomic
scenarios, namely, SRES A2 and SRES B2 for the assessment of climate change
impact on droughts. The GCM outputs were downscaled to the region of
Thessaly using a statistical methodology to estimate precipitation time
series for two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A method has been
proposed for the estimation of annual cumulative drought severity-time
scale-frequency curves. These curves integrate the drought severity and
frequency for various types of drought. The SPI timeseries and annual
weighted cumulative drought severity were estimated and compared with the
respective timeseries and values of the historical period 1960–1990. The
results showed that the annual drought severity is increased for all
hydrological areas and SPI time scales, with the socioeconomic scenario SRES
A2 being the most extreme. |
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