 |
| Titel |
Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield |
| VerfasserIn |
T. J. Coulthard, J. Ramirez, H. J. Fowler, V. Glenis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 11 ; Nr. 16, no. 11 (2012-11-26), S.4401-4416 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013583
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-4401-2012.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected
to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to
increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn,
affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These
geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance,
infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as
sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic
influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability
and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate
models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and
geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of
the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade".
This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change
and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic
modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is
used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change
scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model
to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is
projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of
the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment
runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean
sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High
emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate
change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows
the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even
greater amplification associated with higher return period events.
Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges
from 50-yr return period events are predicted to be 5 times larger than
baseline values. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|