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| Titel |
Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Shukla, N. Voisin, D. P. Lettenmaier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 8 ; Nr. 16, no. 8 (2012-08-17), S.2825-2838 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013431
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-2825-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead
times of up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the
conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction (ESP) based experiments were performed for the period 1980–2003
using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate
forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of
the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a
resampling from the retrospective period 1980–2003 and represented full
climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and
third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member
were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a
deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of
forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the
potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between
the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP,
respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to
-3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill
in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic
conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range
weather forecasts for runoff [SM] forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8
[0 to 0.5] as measured by differences in correlations, with actual
improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some
exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts,
although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2. |
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