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| Titel |
Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China |
| VerfasserIn |
S. L. Sun, H. S. Chen, W. M. Ju, J. Song, J. J. Li, Y. J. Ren, J. Sun |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 7 ; Nr. 16, no. 7 (2012-07-09), S.2005-2020 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013361
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-2005-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
To understand the causes of the past water cycle
variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake
storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the
underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and
Xiashan) within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations
at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four
hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of
different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is
estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show
that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend
from 1961–2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m3 s−1 yr−1
and 1.29 m3 s−1 yr−1 at Meigang and Gaosha,
respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase
in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in
Meigang (3.79 m3 s−1 yr−1), Gaosha (1.12 m3 s−1 yr−1),
and Xiashan (1.34 m3 s−1 yr−1), while the
decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the
streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m3 s−1 yr−1). In
addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and
mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the
four watersheds.
For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate
change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and
evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3
(CMIP3) under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and
SRESB1) for the period of 2061–2100. When the future changes in the soil
water storage changes are assumed ignorable, the streamflow shows an uptrend
with the projected increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration
(except for the SRESB1 scenario in Xiashan watershed) relative to the
observed mean during 1961–2000. Furthermore, the largest increase in the
streamflow is found at Meigang (+4.31%) and Xiashan (+3.84%) under the
SRESA1B scenario, while the increases will occur at Saitang (+6.87%) and
Gaosha (+5.15%) under the SRESB1 scenario. |
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