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| Titel |
The stochastic multiplicative cascade structure of deterministic numerical models of the atmosphere |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Stolle, S. Lovejoy, D. Schertzer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 16, no. 5 ; Nr. 16, no. 5 (2009-10-26), S.607-621 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013267
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-16-607-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| By direct statistical analysis we show that over almost all their range of
scales and to within typically better than ±1%, atmospheric fields
obtained from analyses and numerical integrations of atmospheric models have
the multifractal structure predicted by multiplicative cascade models. We
quantify this for the horizontal wind, temperature, and humidity fields at
5 different pressure levels for the ERA40 reanalysis, the Canadian
Meteorological Centre Global Environmental Multiscale (CMC, GEM) model, as
well as the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Global
Forecasting System (NOAA, GFS). We investigate the additional prediction that
the cascade belongs to a universal multifractal basin of attraction. By
demonstrating a "Levy collapse" of the statistical moments to within
±2 to ±5% over most of the range of scales, we conclude that
there is good evidence for this. Finally, we discuss how this stochastic
multiplicative cascade structure can be exploited in improving ensemble
forecasts. |
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