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| Titel |
Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100 |
| VerfasserIn |
F. C. Sperna Weiland, L. P. H. Beek, J. C. J. Kwadijk, M. F. P. Bierkens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 4 ; Nr. 16, no. 4 (2012-04-02), S.1047-1062 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013249
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-1047-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate
change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties.
Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control
experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model
PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology
can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the
ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of
spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable
consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural
variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the
likelihood of hydrological change is large.
Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of
using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models,
consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent
decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of
Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most
African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon
influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge
increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are
comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we
calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent.
This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst
others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference
periods. |
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