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| Titel |
Analysis of parameter uncertainty in hydrological and sediment modeling using GLUE method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China |
| VerfasserIn |
Z. Y. Shen, L. Chen, T. Chen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 1 ; Nr. 16, no. 1 (2012-01-12), S.121-132 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013116
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-121-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The calibration of hydrologic models is a worldwide challenge due to the
uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. The difficulty even
increases in a region with high seasonal variation of precipitation, where
the results exhibit high heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. In this
study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was
combined with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the
parameter uncertainty of the stream flow and sediment simulation in the
Daning River Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA), China.
Based on this study, only a few parameters affected the final simulation
output significantly. The results showed that sediment simulation presented
greater uncertainty than stream flow, and uncertainty was even greater in
high precipitation conditions (from May to September) than during the dry
season. The main uncertainty sources of stream flow came from the catchment
process while a channel process impacts the sediment simulation greatly. It
should be noted that identifiable parameters such as CANMX,
ALPHA_BNK, SOL_K could be obtained
with an optimal parameter range using calibration method. However,
equifinality was also observed in hydrologic modeling in TGRA. This study
demonstrated that care must be taken when calibrating the SWAT model with
non-identifiable parameters because these may lead to equifinality of the
parameter values. It was anticipated this study would provide useful
information for hydrology modeling related to policy development in the
Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA) and other similar areas. |
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