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| Titel |
Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning |
| VerfasserIn |
J. S. Verkade, M. G. F. Werner |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 12 ; Nr. 15, no. 12 (2011-12-20), S.3751-3765 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013055
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-3751-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response
systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is
imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may
result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty
decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for
in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to
estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is
presented. The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual
damage (EAD) due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic
Value (REV). The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood
losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning
response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting
uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that
use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a
case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the
potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also
shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily
lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal
lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of
forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and
responding to the warning. |
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