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| Titel |
Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members – Part 2: Generalization in time and space |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Brochero, F. Anctil, C. Gagné |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 11 ; Nr. 15, no. 11 (2011-11-04), S.3327-3341 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013016
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-3327-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An uncertainty cascade model applied to stream flow forecasting seeks to
evaluate the different sources of uncertainty of the complex rainfall-runoff
process. The current trend focuses on the combination of Meteorological
Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPS) and hydrological model(s). However, the
number of members of such a HEPS may rapidly increase to a level that may not
be operationally sustainable. This paper evaluates the generalization ability
of a simplification scheme of a 800-member HEPS formed by the combination of
16 lumped rainfall-runoff models with the 50 perturbed members from the
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS. Tests are
made at two levels. At the local level, the transferability of the 9th day
hydrological member selection for the other 8 forecast horizons exhibits an
82% success rate. The other evaluation is made at the regional or cluster
level, the transferability from one catchment to another from within a
cluster of watersheds also leads to a good performance (85% success rate),
especially for forecast time horizons above 3 days and when the basins that
formed the cluster presented themselves a good performance on an individual
basis. Diversity, defined as hydrological model complementarity addressing
different aspects of a forecast, was identified as the critical factor for
proper selection applications. |
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