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| Titel |
Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Özdoğan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 9 ; Nr. 15, no. 9 (2011-09-08), S.2789-2803 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012954
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2789-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow
water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable
Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of
regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs)
forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in
the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a
reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and
associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the
basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites.
While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water
availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant
decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly
under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st
century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM
outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a
consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated
water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed
analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of
reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of
reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover
in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but
these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in
snow water availability have important implications for the future of water
resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and
planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the
changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems
or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the
simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be
indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the
Euphrates-Tigris basin. |
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