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| Titel |
Spectral representation of the annual cycle in the climate change signal |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Bosshard, S. Kotlarski, T. Ewen, C. Schär |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 9 ; Nr. 15, no. 9 (2011-09-01), S.2777-2788 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012953
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2777-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The annual cycle of temperature and precipitation changes as projected by
climate models is of fundamental interest in climate impact studies. Its
estimation, however, is impaired by natural variability. Using a simple form
of the delta change method, we show that on regional scales relevant for
hydrological impact models, the projected changes in the annual cycle are
prone to sampling artefacts. For precipitation at station locations, these
artefacts may have amplitudes that are comparable to the climate change
signal itself. Therefore, the annual cycle of the climate change signal
should be filtered when generating climate change scenarios. We test a
spectral smoothing method to remove the artificial fluctuations. Comparison
against moving monthly averages shows that sampling artefacts in the climate
change signal can successfully be removed by spectral smoothing. The method
is tested at Swiss climate stations and applied to regional climate model
output of the ENSEMBLES project. The spectral method performs well,
except in cases with a strong annual cycle and large relative precipitation
changes. |
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