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| Titel |
Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France) |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Joigneaux, P. Albéric, H. Pauwels, C. Pagé, L. Terray, A. Bruand |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 8 ; Nr. 15, no. 8 (2011-08-04), S.2459-2470 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012919
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2459-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in
karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by
surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to
groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated.
Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the
occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first
established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over
the past 40 years. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent
since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability
on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent
and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm
relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial
patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of
quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its
variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model
projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the
century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in
2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater
quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current
situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the
weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate
change on hydrological systems. |
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