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| Titel |
Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Bocchiola, G. Diolaiuti, A. Soncini, C. Mihalcea, C. D'Agata, C. Mayer, A. Lambrecht, R. Rosso, C. Smiraglia |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 7 ; Nr. 15, no. 7 (2011-07-04), S.2059-2075 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012879
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2059-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the
"third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water
towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the
dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower
production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and
losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for
assessment of future water resources availability for populations down
slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly
studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus
posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact
typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable
hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water
budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this
preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular
watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the
upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are
investigated.
The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project,
aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the
upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a
short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in
the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover
data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for
the reference decade 2050–2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's
panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different
glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized
areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow
descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed,
and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach
is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high
altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending
climate change. |
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