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| Titel |
Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Thorne |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 5 ; Nr. 15, no. 5 (2011-05-17), S.1483-1492 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012783
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1483-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Like many high latitude areas, the mountainous region of subarctic Canada
has experienced recent warming and is an area of large inter-annual
temperature variations, most notably during the winter. Quantifying how
climate tendencies affect streamflow, especially in the spring melt season,
is critical not only to regional water resource management, but to
understanding the influence of freshwater on the Arctic sea-ice cover and
global climate system. The impact of projected atmospheric warming on the
discharge of the Liard River is unclear. Here, uncertainty in climate
projections associated with GCM structure (2 °C prescribed warming) and
magnitude of increases in global mean air temperature (1 to 6 °C) on the
river discharge are assessed using a well-tested, semi-distributed
hydrological model. Analyses have shown that the hydrological impacts are
highly dependant on the GCM scenario. Uncertainties between the GCM
scenarios are driven by the inconsistencies in projected spatial variability
and magnitude of precipitation, rather than warming temperatures. Despite
these uncertainties, the entire scenario simulations project that the
subarctic nival regime will be preserved in the future, but the magnitude of
change in river discharge is highly uncertain. Generally, spring freshet
will arrive earlier, autumn to spring discharge will increase whereas summer
flow will decrease, leading to an overall increase in annual discharge. |
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