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| Titel |
Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Block |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 4 ; Nr. 15, no. 4 (2011-04-29), S.1355-1368 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012757
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1355-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources
operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of
scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a
risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at
the expense of unrealized benefits. Convincing demonstrations of forecast
value are therefore desirable to support assimilation into practice. A
dynamically linked system, including forecast, rainfall-runoff, and
hydropower models, is applied to the upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia to
compare benefits and reliability generated by actual forecasts against a
climatology-based approach, commonly practiced in most water resources
systems. Processing one hundred decadal sequences demonstrates superior
forecast-based benefits in 68 cases, a respectable advancement, however
benefits in a few forecast-based sequences are noticeably low, likely to
dissuade manager's adoption. A hydropower sensitivity test reveals a
propensity toward poor-decision making when forecasts over-predict wet
conditions. Tailoring the precipitation forecast to highlight critical dry
forecasts minimizes this inclination, resulting in 97% of the
sequences favoring the forecast-based approach. Considering managerial risk
preferences for the system, even risk-averse actions, if coupled with
forecasts, exhibit superior benefits and reliability compared with
risk-taking tendencies conditioned on climatology. |
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