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| Titel |
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Lü, S. Jia, W. Zhu, H. Yan, S. Duan, Z. Yao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 4 ; Nr. 15, no. 4 (2011-04-21), S.1273-1281 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012751
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1273-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource
forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI), Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected
as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and
runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level)
between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January,
March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and
monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods:
from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND), with lag periods between one and
twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two
years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere
system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the
Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months.
Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water
resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River. |
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