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| Titel |
Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments |
| VerfasserIn |
N. W. Arnell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 3 ; Nr. 15, no. 3 (2011-03-15), S.897-912 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012688
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-897-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as
indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a
sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing
different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate
models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in
impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example – change in summer
runoff at a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature varying between
−40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results,
particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low
flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised
indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not
adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact
is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution
of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model
patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate
change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables
and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects
of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean
temperature above 1 °C, but there are differences between catchments.
Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate
change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of
high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in
measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between
different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due
to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. |
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