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| Titel |
Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects |
| VerfasserIn |
I.-W. Jung, H. Chang, H. Moradkhani |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 2 ; Nr. 15, no. 2 (2011-02-22), S.617-633 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012649
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-617-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and
hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is
the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by
catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We
attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees
of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the
Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific
Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model
(GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use
change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are
considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency
projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development,
representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results
show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium
high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase
under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios.
Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change
than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency.
Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land
use change in the two catchments for 2050s (2040–2069). Shorter term flood
frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure,
while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated
by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly
in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under
expected climate change conditions, adaptive urban planning based on the
conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson
catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment. |
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