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| Titel |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Wang, A. J. Dolman, A. Alessandri |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2011-01-04), S.57-64 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012585
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-57-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent summer heat waves in Europe were found to be preceded by
precipitation deficits in winter. Numerical studies suggest that these
phenomena are dynamically linked by land-atmosphere interactions. However,
there exists as yet no complete observational evidence that connects summer
climate variability to winter precipitation and the relevant circulation
patterns. In this paper, we investigate the functional responses of summer
mean and maximum temperature (June–August, Tmean and Tmax) as well
as soil moisture proxied by the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity
index (scPDSI) to preceding winter precipitation (January–March, PJFM) for
the period 1901–2005. All the analyzed summer fields show distinctive
responses to PJFM over the Mediterranean. We estimate that 10 ~ 15%
of the interannual variability of Tmax and Tmean over the
Mediterranean is statistically forced by PJFM. For the scPDSI this
amounts to 10 ~ 25%. Further analysis shows that these responses are
highly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime over the
Mediterranean. We suggest that NAO modulates European summer temperature by
controlling winter precipitation that initializes the moisture states that
subsequently interact with temperature. This picture of relations between
European summer climate and NAO as well as winter precipitation suggests
potential for improved seasonal prediction of summer climate for particular
extreme events. |
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