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| Titel |
Modeling for transboundary water resources planning and allocation: the case of Southern Africa |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Juízo, R. Lidén |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2010-11-26), S.2343-2354 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012488
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-2343-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| International water resources agreements for transboundary rivers in southern Africa are
generally founded in system analysis models for water planning and allocation. The Water
Resources Yield Model (WRYM) developed in South Africa has so far been the only model
applied in official joint water resources studies aimed to form water-sharing agreements. The
continuous discussion around the model performance and growing distress over it being South
African, where it was originally developed, while South Africa is one of the interested parties in
the process, results in an increased controversy over the system analysis results that are often
only meant to guide in selecting the options for water resources management in a given set of
scenarios. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the model performance of two other
models; WAFLEX and WEAP21 in the Umbeluzi River Basin system where the WRYM was
previously applied as part of a Joint River Basin Study. A set of basin development scenarios
was equally tested in the three models and the results compared. The results show that the three
models all are possible tools for system analysis of river basins in southern Africa, although the
structure and complexity of the models are different. The obtained level of satisfaction for
specific water users could, however, vary depending on which model was used, which causes
uncertainties. The reason for the diverse results is the structurally different ways of describing
allocation and prioritization of water in the three models. However, the large degrees of freedom
in all system models cause even larger uncertainty in the results since the model developer can,
intentionally or unintentionally, direct the results to favor certain water user. The conclusion of
this study is therefore that the choice of model does not per se affect the decision of best water
allocation and infrastructure layout of a shared river basin. The chosen allocation and
prioritization principles for the specific river basin and the model developer's experience and
integrity are more important factors to find the optimal and equitable allocation. |
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