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| Titel |
An assessment of future extreme precipitation in western Norway using a linear model |
| VerfasserIn |
G. N. Caroletti, I. Barstad |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2010-11-26), S.2329-2341 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012487
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-2329-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A Linear Model (Smith and Barstad, 2004) was used to dynamically downscale
Orographic Precipitation over western Norway from twelve General Circulation
Model simulations. The GCM simulations come from the A1B emissions
scenario in IPCC's 2007 AR4 report. An assessment of the changes to future
Orographic Precipitation (time periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100) versus the
historical control period (1971–2000) was performed. Results showed increases
in the number of Orographic Precipitation days and in Orographic Precipitation
intensity. Extreme precipitation events, as defined by events that exceede
the 99.5%-ile threshold for intensity for the considered period, were found to
be up to 20% more intense in future time periods when compared to 1971–2000
values. Using station-based observations from the control period, the results
from downscaling could be used to generate simulated precipitation histograms
at selected stations.
The Linear Model approach also allowed for simulated changes in precipitation
to be disaggregated according to their causal source: (a) the role of
topography and (b) changes to the amount of moisture delivery to the site.
The latter could be additionaly separated into moisture content changes due to
the following: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, and (iii) stability. An analysis
of these results suggested a strong role of moist stability and warming in the
increasing intensity of extreme Orographic Precipitation events in the area. |
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