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| Titel |
Optimal operation of a multipurpose multireservoir system in the Eastern Nile River Basin |
| VerfasserIn |
Q. Goor, C. Halleux, Y. Mohamed, A. Tilmant |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 10 ; Nr. 14, no. 10 (2010-10-12), S.1895-1908 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012442
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-1895-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped
resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and
irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous
infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in
Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream
in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at (1) examining the
(re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed
reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and (2) assessing the
economic benefits and costs associated with the storage
infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal
distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic
model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic,
economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to
explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various
policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of
the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the
literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in
order to: (i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on
management decisions, (ii) determine allocation policies that naturally
hedge against the hydrological risk, and (iii) assess the relevant risk
indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams
in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown
refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the
reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving
of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses
from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi,
Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant
positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia
and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted
by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the
regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an
increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%. |
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