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| Titel |
Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff |
| VerfasserIn |
A. P. Jacquin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2010-08-30), S.1681-1695 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012408
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-1681-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual
type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather
than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty.
Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties
caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than
by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as
case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from parameter uncertainties of
the watershed model is assessed. Model performance is evaluated according to
several criteria, in order to define the possibility distribution of the
parameter vector. The plausibility of the simulated glacier mass balance and
snow cover are used for further constraining the model representations.
Possibility distributions of the discharge estimates and prediction
uncertainty bounds are subsequently derived. The results of the study
indicate that the use of additional information allows a reduction of
predictive uncertainty. In particular, the assessment of the simulated
glacier mass balance and snow cover helps to reduce the width of the
uncertainty bounds without a significant increment in the number of
unbounded observations. |
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