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| Titel |
A framework for assessing flood frequency based on climate projection information |
| VerfasserIn |
D. A. Raff, T. Pruitt, L. D. Brekke |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 11 ; Nr. 13, no. 11 (2009-11-10), S.2119-2136 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012052
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-2119-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood safety is of the utmost concern for water resources management
agencies charged with operating and maintaining reservoir systems. Risk
evaluations guide design of infrastructure alterations or lead to potential
changes in operations. Changes in climate may change the risk due to floods
and therefore decisions to alter infrastructure with a life span of decades
or longer may benefit from the use of climate projections as opposed to use
of only historical observations. This manuscript presents a set of methods
meant to support flood frequency evaluation based on current downscaled
climate projections and the potential implications of changing flood risk on
how evaluations are made. Methods are demonstrated in four case study
basins: the Boise River above Lucky Peak Dam, the San Joaquin River above
Friant Dam, the James River above Jamestown Dam, and the Gunnison River
above Blue Mesa Dam. The analytical design includes three core elements: (1)
a rationale for selecting climate projections to represent available climate
projections; (2) generation of runoff projections consistent with climate
projections using a process-based hydrologic model and temporal
disaggregation of monthly downscaled climate projections into 6-h weather
forcings required by the hydrologic model; and (3) analysis of flood
frequency distributions based on runoff projection results. In addition to
demonstrating the methodology, this paper also presents method choices under
each analytical element, and the resulting implications to how flood
frequencies are evaluated. The methods used reproduce the antecedent
calibration period well. The approach results in a unidirectional shift in
modeled flood magnitudes. The comparison between an expanding retrospective
(current paradigm for flood frequency estimation) and a lookahead flood
frequency approach indicate potential for significant biases in flood
frequency estimation. |
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