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| Titel |
Simulating past droughts and associated building damages in France |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Corti, V. Muccione, P. Köllner-Heck, D. Bresch, S. I. Seneviratne |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 9 ; Nr. 13, no. 9 (2009-09-30), S.1739-1747 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012002
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-1739-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Droughts can induce important building damages due to shrinking and swelling
of soils, leading to costs as large as for floods in some regions. Previous
studies have focused on damage data analysis, geological or constructional
aspects. Here, a study investigating the climatic aspects of soil subsidence
damage is presented for the first time. We develop a simple model to examine
if the meteorology has a considerable impact on the interannual variability
of damages from soil subsidence in France. We find that the model is capable
of reproducing yearly drought-induced building damages for the time period
1989–2002, thus suggesting a strong meteorological influence. Furthermore,
our results reveal a doubling of damages in these years compared to
1961–1990, mainly as a consequence of increasing temperatures. This
indicates a link to climate change. We also apply the model to the extreme
summer of 2003, which caused a further increase in damage by a factor four,
according to a preliminary damage estimate. The simulation result for that
year shows strong damage underestimation, pointing to additional sources of
vulnerability. Damage data suggest a higher sensitivity to soil subsidence of
regions first affected by drought in the 2003 summer, possibly due to a lack
of preparedness and adaptation. This is of strong concern in the context of
climate change, as densely populated regions in Central Europe and North
America are expected to become newly affected by drought in the future. |
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