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| Titel |
Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change |
| VerfasserIn |
E. R. Vivoni, C. A. Aragón, L. Malczynski, V. C. Tidwell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 6 ; Nr. 13, no. 6 (2009-06-11), S.715-733 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011892
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-715-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States
are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and
precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change.
Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on
the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and
recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and
application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate
change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to
capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the
spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a
simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central
New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime
and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes.
Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture
observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their
interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble
simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate
that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in
particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We
obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and
summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more
intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In
addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed
the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless,
combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive
hydrologic response throughout the year. |
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