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| Titel |
Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times |
| VerfasserIn |
J. R. Holliday, J. B. Rundle, K. F. Tiampo, D. L. Turcotte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2006-10-31), S.585-593 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011844
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-13-585-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and
time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence
are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the
Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis,
we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating
characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large
earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where
fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long
term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this
coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that
the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other
parts of the world. |
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