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| Titel |
Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Knopf, M. Flechsig, K. Zickfeld |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2006-10-10), S.531-540 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011840
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-13-531-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard
approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present
a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation
point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of
the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against
those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation
brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is
characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the
bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a
multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and
deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation
environment.
Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over
a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however,
is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices. |
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