 |
| Titel |
Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Xuan, I. D. Cluckie, Y. Wang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 3 ; Nr. 13, no. 3 (2009-03-06), S.293-303 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011795
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-293-2009.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Advances in mesoscale numerical weather predication make it possible to
provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly
higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possible to incorporate
high-resolution NWPs directly into flood forecasting systems in order to
obtain an extended lead time. It is recognised, however, that direct
application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable
uncertainty to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in
the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be magnified by
the scaling process. As the ensemble weather forecast has become
operationally available, it is of particular interest to the hydrologist to
investigate both the potential and implication of ensemble rainfall inputs to
the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. In
this paper, we employ a distributed hydrological model to analyse the
performance of the ensemble flow forecasts based on the ensemble rainfall
inputs from a short-range high-resolution mesoscale weather model. The
results show that: (1) The hydrological model driven by QPF can produce
forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) The ensemble
hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard
to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself;
and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematic biases are sometimes
significant and, as such, extra effort needs to be made to improve the quality
of such a system. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|