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| Titel |
A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Langner, M. Engardt, A. Baklanov, J. H. Christensen, M. Gauss, C. Geels, G. B. Hedegaard, R. Nuterman, D. Simpson, J. Soares, M. Sofiev, P. Wind, A. Zakey |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 21 ; Nr. 12, no. 21 (2012-11-08), S.10423-10440 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011574
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-10423-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using
four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online
regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global
projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic
emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for
simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the
impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across
the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to
changes in climate between the periods 2000–2009 and 2040–2049 differs by a
factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an
increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of
isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr−1
for the current climate, partly due to differences in
horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated
change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models
explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean
changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1
ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes
of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region.
In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative
changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles
indicating that climate impacts on O3 could be especially important in
connection with extreme summer events. |
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