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| Titel |
Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential |
| VerfasserIn |
D. T. Shindell  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 17 ; Nr. 12, no. 17 (2012-09-06), S.7955-7960 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011427
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-7955-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate
metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP
presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude
bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N,
28–60° N and 60–90° N) as a function of emissions based
on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large
set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to
derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the
robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the
ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol
forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good
accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates
fall within ±20% of the actual responses, though there are some
exceptions for 90–28° S and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP
may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern
Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the ±20% range appears to be
roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within
these two bands respond 39–45% and 9–39% more than the latitude band
as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears
to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale
latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative
forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could
allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale
than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model. |
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