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| Titel |
Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model |
| VerfasserIn |
W.-B. Chen, W.-C. Liu, M.-H. Hsu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 12 ; Nr. 12, no. 12 (2012-12-21), S.3799-3809 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011268
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-3799-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events
have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper
explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back
propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional
hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events.
The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the
interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be
applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges
along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation
at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the
meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of
the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge
height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons
approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the
astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm
surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the
astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and
verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error
and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the
different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model.
Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully
applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during
typhoon events. |
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