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| Titel |
Verification of ensemble forecasts of Mediterranean high-impact weather events against satellite observations |
| VerfasserIn |
J.-P. Chaboureau, O. Nuissier, C. Claud |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 8 ; Nr. 12, no. 8 (2012-08-03), S.2449-2462 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011040
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2449-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ensemble forecasts at kilometre scale of two severe storms over the
Mediterranean region are verified against satellite observations. In
complement to assessing the forecasts against ground-based measurements,
brightness temperature (BT) images are computed from forecast fields and
directly compared to BTs observed from satellite. The so-called
model-to-satellite approach is very effective in identifying systematic
errors in the prediction of cloud cover for BTs in the infrared window and in
verifying the forecasted convective activity with BTs in the microwave range.
This approach is combined with the calculation of meteorological scores for
an objective evaluation of ensemble forecasts. The application of the
approach is shown in the context of two Mediterranean case studies, a
tropical-like storm and a heavy precipitating event. Assessment of cloud
cover and convective activity using satellite observations in the infrared
(10.8 μm) and microwave regions (183–191 GHz) provides results
consistent with other traditional methods using rainfall measurements. In
addition, for the tropical-like storm, differences among forecasts occur much
earlier in terms of cloud cover and deep convective activity than they do in
terms of deepening and track. Further, the underdispersion of the ensemble
forecasts of the two high-impact weather events is easily identified with
satellite diagnostics. This suggests that such an approach could be a useful
method for verifying ensemble forecasts, particularly in data-sparse regions. |
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