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| Titel |
Seasonal forecast of French Mediterranean heavy precipitating events linked to weather regimes |
| VerfasserIn |
J.-F. Guérémy, N. Laanaia, J.-P. Céron |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 7 ; Nr. 12, no. 7 (2012-07-25), S.2389-2398 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010999
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2389-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Seasonal predictability of local precipitation is rather weak in the
mid-latitudes. This is the case when assessing the skill of the seasonal
forecast of Heavy Precipitating Event (HPE) extreme occurrence over the
French Mediterranean coast during the fall season. Tropics to extra-tropics
teleconnection patterns do appear when averaging analyzed fields over the
years characterised by a frequency of HPE occurrence in the upper
17% of the distribution. A methodology taking weather regime occurrence
into account as an intermediate step to forecast HPE extreme occurrence is
presented. For the period 1960 to 2001 and four different sets of seasonal
forecast, the Economical Value is doubled, compared to the score
obtained with the simulated local precipitation data, when using a linear
model (Linear Discriminant Analysis in this case) taking simulated 200 hPa
velocity potential–stream function regime occurrences as predictors.
Interestingly, larger scores are shown for this couple of fields
over a large-scale domain including the tropics than for the 500 hPa
geopotential height over an Euro–Atlantic domain, despite a tighter link of
the latter field to the local precipitation. |
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