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| Titel |
Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Stepek, I. L. Wijnant, G. Schrier, E. J. M. Besselaar, A. M. G. Klein Tank |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2012-06-25), S.1969-1981 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010928
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1969-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for
Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are
unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all
warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries.
This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind
gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using
one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return
values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local
climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as
is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of
the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal
basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the
European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu)
were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The
current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return
periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods
for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide
wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the
fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for
that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could
be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are
presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic
and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous
regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods
differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and
mountainous areas.
We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent
participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning
system. |
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