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| Titel |
Earthquake forecasting and its verification |
| VerfasserIn |
J. R. Holliday, K. Z. Nanjo, K. F. Tiampo, J. B. Rundle, D. L. Turcotte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2005-11-09), S.965-977 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010899
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-12-965-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time
prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible
to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this
paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a
pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations
in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small
earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a
seismogenic region ("hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to
occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been
successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide
basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are
binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur.
The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the
use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC)
diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias
than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two
types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI
method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on
the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most
smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both
retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to
31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the
forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most
circumstances. |
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