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| Titel |
Drought analysis and short-term forecast in the Aison River Basin (Greece) |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Kavalieratou, D. K. Karpouzos, C. Babajimopoulos |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 5 ; Nr. 12, no. 5 (2012-05-21), S.1561-1572 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010821
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1561-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A combined regional drought analysis and forecast is elaborated and applied
to the Aison River Basin (Greece). The historical frequency, duration and
severity were estimated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI)
computed on variable time scales, while short-term drought forecast was
investigated by means of 3-D loglinear models. A quasi-association model
with homogenous diagonal effect was proposed to fit the observed frequencies
of class transitions of the SPI values computed on the 12-month time scale.
Then, an adapted submodel was selected for each data set through the
backward elimination method. The analysis and forecast of the drought class
transition probabilities were based on the odds of the expected frequencies,
estimated by these submodels, and the respective confidence intervals of
these odds. The parsimonious forecast models fitted adequately the observed
data. Results gave a comprehensive insight on drought behavior, highlighting
a dominant drought period (1988–1991) with extreme drought events and
revealing, in most cases, smooth drought class transitions. The proposed
approach can be an efficient tool in regional water resources management and
short-term drought warning, especially in irrigated districts. |
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