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| Titel |
In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Klijn, J. M. Knoop, W. Ligtvoet, M. J. P. Mens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 5 ; Nr. 12, no. 5 (2012-05-16), S.1469-1479 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010814
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1469-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view
of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea
level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls
for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is
agreement about the "framing" of the problem and about the strategic
alternatives that should be taken into account.
In support of this framing, we performed an exploratory policy analysis,
applying future climate and socio-economic scenarios to account for the
autonomous development of flood risks, and defined a number of different
strategic alternatives for flood risk management at the national level.
These alternatives, ranging from flood protection by brute force to
reduction of the vulnerability by spatial planning only, were compared with
continuation of the current policy on a number of criteria, comprising
costs, the reduction of fatality risk and economic risk, and their
robustness in relation to uncertainties.
We found that a change of policy away from conventional embankments towards
gaining control over the flooding process by making the embankments
unbreachable is attractive. By thus influencing exposure to flooding, the
fatality risk can be effectively reduced at even lower net societal costs
than by continuation of the present policy or by raising the protection
standards where cost-effective. |
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