 |
| Titel |
The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Younis, S. Anquetin, J. Thielen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2008-07-30), S.1039-1051 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010756
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-12-1039-2008.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
In Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating
hazards in terms of loss of human life and infrastructures. Over the last two
decades, flash floods have caused damage costing a billion Euros in France
alone. One of the problems of flash floods is that warning times are very
short, leaving typically only a few hours for civil protection services to
act. This study investigates if operationally available short-range numerical
weather forecasts together with a rainfall-runoff model can be used for early
indication of the occurrence of flash floods.
One of the challenges in flash flood forecasting is that the watersheds are
typically small, and good observational networks of both rainfall and
discharge are rare. Therefore, hydrological models are difficult to calibrate
and the simulated river discharges cannot always be compared with ground
measurements. The lack of observations in most flash flood prone basins,
therefore, necessitates the development of a method where the excess of the
simulated discharge above a critical threshold can provide the forecaster
with an indication of potential flood hazard in the area, with lead times of
the order of weather forecasts.
This study is focused on the Cévennes-Vivarais region in the Southeast of
the Massif Central in France, a region known for devastating flash floods.
This paper describes the main aspects of using numerical weather forecasting
for flash flood forecasting, together with a threshold – exceedance. As a
case study the severe flash flood event which took place on 8–9 September
2002 has been chosen.
Short-range weather forecasts, from the Lokalmodell of the German national
weather service, are used as input for the LISFLOOD model, a hybrid between a
conceptual and physically based rainfall-runoff model. Results of the study
indicate that high resolution operational weather forecasting combined with a
rainfall-runoff model could be useful to determine flash floods more than 24 h in advance. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|