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| Titel |
Modelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach |
| VerfasserIn |
O. Wild, A. M. Fiore, D. T. Shindell  , R. M. Doherty, W. J. Collins, F. J. Dentener, M. G. Schultz, S. Gong, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Zeng, P. Hess, B. N. Duncan, D. J. Bergmann, S. Szopa, J. E. Jonson, T. J. Keating, A. Zuber |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2012-02-21), S.2037-2054 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010739
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-2037-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate regionally averaged
changes in surface ozone due to past or future changes in anthropogenic
precursor emissions based on results from 14 global chemistry transport models.
The method successfully reproduces the results of full simulations with
these models. For a given emission scenario it provides the ensemble
mean surface ozone change, a regional source attribution for each change, and
an estimate of the associated uncertainty as represented by the variation
between models. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission
scenarios as an example, we show how regional surface ozone is likely to
respond to emission changes by 2050 and how changes in precursor emissions
and atmospheric methane contribute to this. Surface ozone changes are
substantially smaller than expected with the SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios,
with annual global mean reductions of as much as 2 ppb by 2050 vs.
increases of 4–6 ppb under SRES, and this reflects
the assumptions of more stringent precursor emission controls
under the RCP scenarios. We find an average difference of around 5 ppb
between the outlying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, about 75% of which
can be attributed to differences in methane abundance. The study reveals
the increasing importance of limiting atmospheric methane growth as emissions
of other precursors are controlled, but highlights differences in modelled
ozone responses to methane changes of as much as a factor of two, indicating
that this remains a major uncertainty in current models. |
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