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| Titel |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Moel, N. E. M. Asselman, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2012-04-16), S.1045-1058 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010701
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1045-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Uncertainty analyses of flood damage assessments generally require a large
amount of model evaluations. This is often hampered by the high
computational costs necessary to calculate flood extents and depths using
2-dimensional flow models. In this paper we developed a new approach to
estimate flood inundation depths that can be incorporated in a Monte Carlo
uncertainty analysis. This allows estimation of the uncertainty in flood
damage estimates and the determination of which parameters contribute the
most to this uncertainty. The approach is applied on three breach locations
on the west coast of the Netherlands. In total, uncertainties in 12 input
parameters were considered in this study, related to the storm surge, breach
growth and the damage calculation. We show that the uncertainty in flood
damage estimates is substantial, with the bounds of the 95% confidence
range being more than four times smaller or larger than the median. The most
influential parameter is uncertainty in depth-damage curves, but five other
parameters also contribute substantially. The contribution of uncertainty in
parameters related to the damage calculation is about equal to the
contribution of parameters related to the volume of the inflowing water.
Given the emphasis of most risk assessments on the estimation of the hazard,
this implies that the damage calculation aspect deserves more attention in
flood risk research efforts. Given the large uncertainties found in this
study, it is recommended to always perform multiple calculations in flood
simulations and damage assessments to capture the full range of model
outcomes. |
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