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| Titel |
Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess |
| VerfasserIn |
N. N. Valchev, E. V. Trifonova, N. K. Andreeva |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2012-04-13), S.961-977 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010695
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-961-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and
endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has
become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue
can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm
manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past
and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm
climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial
historical time-span of 63 yr (1948–2010). It was used to create a storm
population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies). This
was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low
probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on
their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies
were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration;
integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and
direction, which were obtained for each storm season.
While experiencing significant variability on a quasi-decadal scale, no
significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For
almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a
return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable.
On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind
velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern,
manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing
direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave
energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained
results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic
Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a
part of the European-Atlantic area, in particular with respect to the
cyclonic activity. |
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