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| Titel |
Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, D. J. Jacob |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 3 ; Nr. 12, no. 3 (2012-02-14), S.1597-1609 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010649
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-1597-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical
composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To
investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in
vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and
anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of
model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic
global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our
results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation
composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in
summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the
northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases
in ozone dry deposition associated with increases in vegetation density in a
warmer climate with higher atmospheric CO2 abundance. Climate-driven
vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in
isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050 and 36% in 2100. These
increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone
concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical
rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United
States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene
emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher
concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by
10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of
secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to
1 μg m−3 and double for large areas in Eurasia over
the period of 2000–2100. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less
increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting
forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of
secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future
land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large
regional changes at the surface. |
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