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| Titel |
Operational verification of a framework for the probabilistic nowcasting of river discharge in small and medium size basins |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Silvestro, N. Rebora |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 3 ; Nr. 12, no. 3 (2012-03-23), S.763-776 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010618
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-763-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Forecasting river discharge is a very important issue for the prediction
and monitoring of ground effects related to severe precipitation events. The
meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation on small
spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. For these reasons the issuing
of reliable flood forecasts is not feasible in those regions where the
basin's response to rainfall events is very fast and can generate flash
floods. This problem can be tackled by using rainfall nowcasting techniques
based on radar observations coupled with hydrological modeling. These
procedures allow the forecasting of future streamflow with a few hours'
notice. However, to account for the short-term uncertainties in the
evolution of fine scale precipitation field, a probabilistic approach to
rainfall nowcasting is needed. These uncertainties are then propagated from
rainfall to runoff through a distributed hydrological model producing a set
of equi-probable discharge scenarios to be used for the flood nowcasting
with time horizons of a few hours. Such a hydrological nowcasting system is
presented here and applied to some case studies. A first evaluation of its
applicability in an operational context is provided and the opportunity of
using the results quantitatively is discussed. |
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