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| Titel |
A probabilistic seismic hazard model based on cellular automata and information theory |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Jiménez, A. M. Posadas, J. M. Marfil |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 12, no. 3 ; Nr. 12, no. 3 (2005-03-15), S.381-396 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010594
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-12-381-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We try to obtain a spatio-temporal model of earthquakes occurrence based on
Information Theory and Cellular Automata (CA). The CA supply useful models
for many investigations in natural sciences; here, it have been used to
establish temporal relations between the seismic events occurring in
neighbouring parts of the crust. The catalogue used is divided into time
intervals and the region into cells, which are declared active or inactive
by means of a certain energy release criterion (four criteria have been
tested). A pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is
given. A stochastic CA is constructed with the patterns to simulate their
spatio-temporal evolution. The interaction between the cells is represented
by the neighbourhood (2-D and 3-D models have been tried). The best model is
chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future
states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is drawn up for the
different energy releases. The method has been applied to the Iberian
Peninsula catalogue from 1970 to 2001. For 2-D, the best neighbourhood has
been the Moore's one of radius 1; the von Neumann's 3-D also gives hazard
maps and takes into account the depth of the events. Gutenberg-Richter's law
and Hurst's analysis have been obtained for the data as a test of the
catalogue. Our results are consistent with previous studies both of seismic
hazard and stress conditions in the zone, and with the seismicity occurred
after 2001. |
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