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| Titel |
Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Wahl, C. Mudersbach, J. Jensen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 2 ; Nr. 12, no. 2 (2012-02-29), S.495-510 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010517
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-495-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents an advanced approach to statistically analyse storm
surge events. In former studies the highest water level during a storm surge
event usually was the only parameter that was used for the statistical
assessment. This is not always sufficient, especially when statistically
analysing storm surge scenarios for event-based risk analyses. Here,
Archimedean Copula functions are applied and allow for the consideration of
further important parameters in addition to the highest storm surge water
levels. First, a bivariate model is presented and used to estimate
exceedance probabilities of storm surges (for two tide gauges in the German
Bight) by jointly analysing the important storm surge parameters "highest
turning point" and "intensity". Second, another dimension is added and a
trivariate fully nested Archimedean Copula model is applied to additionally
incorporate the significant wave height as an important wave parameter. With
the presented methodology, reliable and realistic exceedance probabilities
are derived and can be considered (among others) for integrated flood risk
analyses contributing to improve the overall results. It is highlighted
that the concept of Copulas represents a promising alternative for facing
multivariate problems in coastal engineering. |
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