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| Titel |
Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models |
| VerfasserIn |
P. C. Chu, L. M. Ivanov |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 12, no. 1 ; Nr. 12, no. 1 (2005-01-28), S.129-138 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010386
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-12-129-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed
using the probability density function (PDF) of the irreversible
predictability time (IPT) (called τ-PDF) computed from an
unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions,
winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and
a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the wind-driven
circulation. Relationship between attractor's residence time and IPT
determines the τ-PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and
intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The τ-PDF is usually
non-Gaussian but not multi-modal for red-noise perturbations in initial
conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions.
Bifurcation of τ-PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally,
extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the τ-PDF's tail
toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a
whole ensemble of predictions. |
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