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| Titel |
Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Kyselý, J. Picek |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Mediterranean storms and extreme events in an era of climate change ; Nr. 12 (2007-07-02), S.43-50 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010357
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-12-43-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Due to synoptic-climatological reasons as well as a specific configuration
of mountain ranges, the northeast part of the Czech Republic is an area with
an enhanced influence of low-pressure systems of the Mediterranean origin.
They are associated with an upper-level advection of warm and moist air and
often lead to heavy precipitation events. Particularities of this area are
evaluated using a regional frequency analysis. The northeast region is
identified as a homogeneous one according to tests on statistical
characteristics of precipitation extremes (annual maxima of 1- to 7-day
amounts), and observed distributions follow a different model compared to
the surrounding area. Noteworthy is the heavy tail of distributions of
multi-day events, reflected also in inapplicability of the L-moment
estimators for the general 4-parameter kappa distribution utilized in Monte
Carlo simulations in regional homogeneity and goodness-of-fit tests. We
overcome this issue by using the maximum likelihood estimation. The
Generalized Logistic distribution is identified as the most suitable one for
modelling annual maxima; advantages of the regional over local approach to
the frequency analysis consist mainly in reduced uncertainty of the growth
curves and design value estimates. The regional growth curves are used to
derive probabilities of recurrence of recent heavy precipitation events
associated with major floods in the Odra river basin. |
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