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| Titel |
The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Roy, J. D. Haigh |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 22 ; Nr. 11, no. 22 (2011-11-22), S.11679-11687 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010213
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-11679-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Our fundamental aim is to investigate solar cycle signals in sea level
pressure. In order to see if these may relate, especially at high latitudes,
to the solar influence on the stratosphere we start by investigating the
temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state
of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find
that the choice of pressure level used to define the phase of the QBO is
important in determining how the solar and QBO influences appear to act in
combination.
Informed by this we carry out a multiple linear regression analysis of zonal
mean temperatures throughout the lower stratosphere and troposphere. A
combined solar*QBO temporal index exhibits strongly in the lower
stratosphere, but in much of the troposphere any influence of the QBO,
either on its own or coupled to solar effects is much smaller than the pure
solar signal.
We use a similar approach to analyse sea level pressure (SLP) data, first
using a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. We find at high
latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that the
compound solar*QBO temporal index shows a significant signal. This is such
that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar
activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the
polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. By
employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extend the SLP
analysis back to that date and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM;
though weaker for surface NAM.
Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO,
influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower
stratosphere, in the mid-latitude troposphere and sea level pressure near
the poles. Thus a knowledge of the state of the Sun, and the phase of the
QBO might be useful in surface climate prediction. |
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