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| Titel |
Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality |
| VerfasserIn |
S. C. Anenberg, K. Talgo, S. Arunachalam, P. Dolwick, C. Jang, J. J. West |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 14 ; Nr. 11, no. 14 (2011-07-25), S.7253-7267 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009944
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-7253-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is
associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by
absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies
have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health
impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface
PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC
emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major
economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to
simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate
premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving
global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted
average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 %
confidence interval, 120 000–194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with
the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided
deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %),
followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have
50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian
emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation
emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from
halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2,
and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the
degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC
emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the
magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced
absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential
BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is
excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic
carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting that these results
greatly underestimate the full air pollution-related mortality benefits of
BC mitigation strategies which generally decrease both BC and OC. The choice
of concentration-response factor and health effect thresholds affects
estimated global avoided deaths by as much as 56 % but does not strongly
affect the regional distribution. Confidence in our results would be
strengthened by reducing uncertainties in emissions, model parameterization
of aerosol processes, grid resolution, and PM2.5 concentration-mortality relationships globally. |
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